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Barron’s published a great article in which Jeff Brown and Income Lab co-founder Johnny Poulsen argue that gamification of Monte Carlo probability of success results “may be creating misdirected incentives in retirement planning.”
Here a few of the main points:
- Gamifying toward a 100% probability of success means restricting income—and ultimately standard of living—to accommodate a worst-case scenario that is (a) highly unlikely to occur and (b) could be better managed with minor changes in spending habits along the way.
- Instead of relying on oversimplified and gamified probability of success, advisors should consider using retirement planning tools that help individuals arrive at realistic income levels and adjustment plans.